Extreme event forecasting: is it possible? Yes, more and more. The organization is certain that it now has the best resources available to accurately notify producers about the possibility of a deluge, said to Chris Nankervis, CEO of Weather Logistics. This is one of the risk-mitigation strategies that will be covered by four experts in a free Agri-TechE webinar on April 29. The farming industry is accustomed to managing risk, but extreme weather events appear to be occurring more frequently, according to Dr. Belinda Clarke, Director of Agri-TechE. Several Agri-tech entrepreneurs have been asked to explain how new AI-based solutions may lessen the effects of weather and other “acts of God.”
According to Chris Nankervis, the Atlantic jet stream airflow—a high-altitude ribbon of swiftly moving air that directs our weather systems—is largely to blame for significant deviations from the typical patterns of rainfall across the British Isles. “This has led to a notable increase in the unpredictability of farming profits in recent years,” he claims. Weather Logistics can identify jet stream interruptions throughout the year and uses this information along with other information to produce customized weather forecasts. Farmers can make better decisions using this knowledge by postponing or advancing drilling or other farming operations to avoid unfavorable seasonal weather conditions. According to Chris, crop scheduling optimization for companies in the horticultural sector might boost profit margins by up to 20% while ensuring that supply schedules with food merchants are met.
The objective of Cervest, which is working to create the capability to forecast extreme occurrences anywhere on the earth, is to provide location-level risk assessments. The company will be able to forecast the precise effects of an extreme event on any natural or built asset (crops, forests, flood plains, utility infrastructure, buildings) on any parcel of land, globally, by analyzing climate and historical data. As a result, according to Mark Hodgson, chief business officer of Cervest, useful ratings and indicators have been created that may be used to help control exposure to excessive heat and precipitation events as well as other natural calamities like flooding. Users can assess risk exposure and use the information to make unbiased, well-informed decisions about the assets they manage.
It’s raining a lot right now, but is that typical for this time of year or is it an anomaly? Customers need to know if the condition they are seeing is a trend, says Mark. Exists a new meteorological pattern that will persist for a generation? Are we part of a new cycle that lasts two to five years? The impact on longer-term planning and investment makes that knowledge crucial.
While weather predictions are helpful, according to Joe Brooker, Senior Analyst at Stable Group Ltd, the biggest concerns facing farmers are price and yield. Risk related to price and yield are related. Weather affects production, which can have an impact on yield; yield, in turn, can have an impact on price, depending on scale, timing, and other factors. These elements can also happen on their own. Price volatility is greater than that of the weather. A kind of insurance created by Stable Group Ltd employs unbiased commodities indices to guard against price volatility. Farmers can set the price, and if the price declines, the insurance will kick in. The platform balances its risk portfolio across crop, location, time, and place by running 62 trillion simulations per week to estimate prices and identify impending pricing signals.